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| Photo: X Akhilesh Yadav |
As the monsoon clouds recede over Bihar, a political storm of immense consequence is gathering. The upcoming Assembly election, slated for October-November 2025, is shaping up to be far more than a routine democratic exercise. It is a referendum on two decades of governance, a crucible for new political experiments, and a reflection of a populace palpably yearning for change. For the 243 seats in the Vidhan Sabha, the contest has fractured into a complex three-way struggle, pitting the incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the resurgent Mahagathbandhan (MGB), and a disruptive new force against each other in a battle for the very soul of Bihar.
A Three-Horse Race on a Shifting Track
On one side stands the ruling NDA, a coalition held together by a fragile, almost paradoxical, equilibrium. The alliance has declared that it will fight under the leadership of the veteran Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar. Yet, the irony is palpable. In the 2020 election, Kumar's Janata Dal (United) secured a mere 43 seats, dwarfed by its partner, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which won 74. The BJP's decision to prop up a leader with demonstrably waning public support—opinion polls place his popularity between 15% and 18% —is a masterclass in political compulsion. Lacking a state-level leader with the mass appeal to counter the opposition, the BJP is forced to cling to Nitish, the architect of the crucial Extremely Backward Classes (EBC) and Mahadalit vote bank, even as it chafes under his leadership.
The primary opposition, the Mahagathbandhan, presents a far more unified front. Led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal's (RJD) Tejashwi Yadav, who has been formally declared the Chief Ministerial candidate, the alliance appears energized. Yadav consistently tops the charts as the preferred CM, with support hovering around 35-37%. Bolstered by the Congress and a revitalized block of Left parties, the MGB’s challenge is to expand its appeal beyond its traditional Muslim-Yadav base, which, while formidable, has proven insufficient to secure a majority on its own.
Then there is the wildcard: Prashant Kishor. The famed political strategist has thrown his hat into the ring with his Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), pledging to contest all 243 seats. Dismissing the politics of caste and religion, Kishor is running a campaign laser-focused on governance failures—unemployment, migration, and crime. He openly embraces the "vote-cutter" label, vowing to decimate the vote banks of both legacy alliances. Early polls suggest he is gaining traction, particularly among the youth and upper castes, making him the unpredictable X-factor in this election.
The Battleground of Bread, Butter, and Bullets
Beyond the personalities, this election is being fought on a trio of visceral issues. First is the specter of unemployment. A war of promises has erupted, with Nitish Kumar vowing an almost fantastical 1 crore jobs over the next five years , while Tejashwi Yadav counters with a pledge to implement a domicile policy favoring local youth in government jobs. These are not mere policy points; they are potent weapons of hope in a state where migration for work remains a painful reality for millions.
Second, law and order has returned to the forefront with a vengeance. A chilling spike in violent crime, with 1,376 murders recorded in the first half of 2025 alone, has shaken the state. This has allowed the opposition to invert the NDA’s most potent historical narrative. "Jungle Raj," the term once used to haunt the RJD, is now being hurled back at Nitish Kumar, whose entire political brand was built on being "Sushasan Babu" (Mr. Good Governance). When an NDA ally like Chirag Paswan publicly laments that the "morale of the criminals is sky high," it signals a catastrophic erosion of the Chief Minister's core political asset.
Finally, the Election Commission's controversial Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls has become a political flashpoint. The opposition, led by Rahul Gandhi, has framed this administrative exercise as an institutional conspiracy for "vote chori" (vote theft), designed to disenfranchise migrant laborers. By turning a procedural issue into a battle for democratic integrity, the MGB has successfully elevated the stakes beyond local grievances.
As Bihar stands at this crossroads, the path forward is uncertain. Will voters opt for the strained stability of the NDA, banking on the "Modi factor" to overcome state-level discontent? Will they embrace Tejashwi Yadav's promise of change, fueled by a wave of anti-incumbency? Or will Prashant Kishor's audacious gambit succeed in shattering the old certainties, leading to a hung assembly and a new political dawn? The answer, come November, will not only decide the fate of 12 crore Biharis but will also send ripples across the national political landscape.
This Article is authored by Adnan Khan, Currently Pursuing MA Political Science in Manipur University.
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